First Click vs. Last Click: Rethinking Attribution Models for Better Ad Decisions

Introduction

In a world where consumers interact with brands across multiple platforms and touchpoints, understanding what drives conversions is harder than ever. For years, marketers have relied on simplified attribution models especially first-click and last-click attribution—to measure campaign success. But as buying journeys get longer and more fragmented, it’s time to rethink whether these models are telling the full story.

What Is Attribution in Digital Marketing?

Attribution is the process of assigning credit for a sale or conversion to the touchpoints a customer interacted with along their journey. It helps marketers decide which ads, channels, or keywords are driving results—and which aren’t.

The two most common models are:

• First-Click Attribution: Gives 100% credit to the first interaction.

• Last-Click Attribution: Gives 100% credit to the final interaction before conversion.

  
  

The Pitfalls of First Click & Last-Click Models

While both models offer simplicity, they ignore the complexity of modern purchase paths.

1. First-Click Attribution Flaws:

• Overemphasizes top-of-funnel discovery.

• Ignores nurturing and remarketing efforts that closed the deal.

• Might mislead you into scaling only awareness channels that don’t convert well alone.

2. Last-Click Attribution Flaws:

• Credits only the final touchpoint, often branded search or retargeting.

• Undervalues the real initiators, like social media ads or content marketing.

• Can create a false sense of what’s "working" by over-indexing on bottom-funnel efforts.

Why This Matters for Ad Decisions

Let’s say you run Meta Ads for a supplement brand and Google Ads for branded search. If you're using last-click attribution, Google will get the credit for all purchases, even if Meta introduced the product and created intent.

The result? You might cut Meta's spend thinking it’s underperforming, only to see your overall sales drop.

The same happens in reverse with the first click: you'll over-invest in discovery while neglecting retargeting and conversion-focused content.

Smarter Attribution Alternatives

To get a clearer picture, marketers are adopting more holistic models:

• Linear Attribution: Evenly distributes credit across all touchpoints.

• Time Decay Attribution: Gives more weight to recent interactions.

• Position-Based Attribution (U-Shaped): Prioritizes first and last interactions but still credits the middle touchpoints.

• Data-Driven Attribution: Uses machine learning to assign credit based on actual impact, not assumptions.

These models acknowledge the nuance of modern customer journeys and help you make more balanced decisions across your ad funnel.

What Should You Do?

1. Audit Your Funnel: Map out all the key touchpoints across Meta, Google, email, organic, etc.

2. Layer Attribution Models: Don’t rely on one model—compare insights from multiple perspectives.

3. Use Platform + GA4 Data: Platforms like Meta and Google give self-reported attribution. Combine that with GA4's cross-channel view for more accuracy.

4. Build Multi-Touch Dashboards: Use tools like Looker Studio or Google Sheets to track assisted conversions, not just last clicks.

Conclusion:

In 2025, relying solely on first or last-click attribution is like judging a cricket match by just the first or last over. It may be easy, but it’s rarely accurate.

Better ad decisions come from better context. The more visibility you have into the full customer journey, the smarter your budget allocations, creative strategy, and campaign planning will be.